Locked In Or Lockdown: A Dyson Daniels Extension Outlook
Overview
Last season, Dyson Daniels took center-stage. After two seasons where he flashed upside but was still a relative unknown, the 22-year-old Aussie exploded onto the scene, emerging as one of the NBA’s top defenders and a key piece of a rising Atlanta Hawks team. Riding this momentum, Daniels became extension eligible. And this extension negotiation sits within larger roster-building questions that a new Hawks Front Office appears to be navigating.
This analysis will profile Daniels, his value, and contract comps, while providing a glimpse into Atlanta’s financial and roster-building strategy, to paint a clearer picture of what a Daniels extension could look like. It will analyze why this negotiation is not as straightforward as what meets the eye. Finally, if you would like a slide deck + appendix version of this newsletter that has additional tidbits of information and stats, feel free to download the PDF attached below!
On-Court Value
Secondary Ball-Handler - In a Hawks’ offense that has been heliocentric around Trae Young, having secondary ball-handlers, playmakers, and connectors, to take pressure off Young, is important. Daniels has been a part of a collective of players that is tasked with ball-handling and play-making responsibilities when Young is off the floor. On the 2024-25 Hawks team, Daniels ranked 3rd in potential ASTs, touches, and P&R ball-handler possessions run (56.7% percentile), typically behind Young and Jalen Johnson. His driving numbers also significantly increased (10.3 a game), and he has the ability to use his size to his advantage. That said, Daniels still has room to grow on this front, with a poor TOV% (13.2%, 38th percentile) and AST% (17.4%, 38th percentile).
The Spacing Need - To date, Daniels has not been a reliable 3pt shooter and possesses very little spacing gravity, as seen by how he is treated by opposing defenses. He has never shot above 35% from 3 in his career. And in 2024-25, he had a 7th percentile 3pt frequency, which demonstrates that there is a hesitancy to shoot, and an overall lack of confidence. Of the total 235 3s that Daniels attempted in 2024-25, 229 of them were classified as “Open” or “Wide-Open”, showcasing how teams almost dare him to shoot. His 3PR has gone down year-over-year, which goes hand-in-hand with a dramatic increase in rim and short-mid frequency. For example, in 2024-25, Daniels attempted 359 shots in the short-mid range area (72 in 2023-24), and 315 at the rim (82 in 2023-24).
The Great Barrier Thief - Where Daniels’ true on-court value lies is with his defense, where has become one of the best defenders in the league. This is represented by his 2nd-place finish in the 2024-25 DPOY race, and inclusion on 1st-Team All-Defense. From a Hawks’ perspective, he is the anchor of the defense. Due to his 6’8” height, 6’10.5’ wingspan, and elite athleticism, Daniels can guard multiple positions at a high-level. Within a Hawks’ scheme that needs to cover for Young and his defensive inadequacies, Daniels’ defensive ability takes on heightened importance. And while it is difficult to quantify defense, the eye-test is backed up by the numbers that are available. In 2024-25, Daniels’ D-EPM placed him in the 98th percentile (+2.4), he had the 18th most DWS, and the 7th highest DBPM. Daniels led the league in Stocks, had 98 more STLs than the next closest player, and had 448 deflections (168 more than 2nd place, and the highest total in the tracking dataset, which began in 2015-16).
Daniels is unique because he sits on opposite ends of two defining themes of the modern NBA: elite defense and shooting. While the connector role that he has ostensibly taken up within the Hawks’ offense is valuable, Daniels will largely be defined by his ability, or lack thereof, to space the floor. There will be a time and place in a high leverage game where Daniels will be forced to hold the defense accountable from beyond the arc. Whether he is able to do so on a consistent basis will influence his overall impact offensively. If not, that inability could hold both Daniels, and his team, back. That said, regarding perimeter defense, there are few players, if not any, who are better. His defensive profile is the exact archetype that organizations value extremely highly. Thus, regardless, of his limitations, Daniels is still a very valuable player. Below is his DARKO career trajectory:
Hawks Financial Situation and The Complicating Factor
The Hawks head into the 2025-26 season with $27.8M in 2nd Apron space and $16M of 1st Apron Space. The team is $7.9M under the Tax and is currently Hard-Capped at the 1st Apron due to acquiring Luke Kennard with the NTMLE and Nickeil Alexander-Walker via sign-and-trade. The team currently has 13 guaranteed standard contracts on the roster (which means that it will need to add another player at some point soon), and all 3 of its Two-Way slots filled. Regarding extension-eligibility for players of note, Daniels is extension-eligible until October 20th, with Young and Kristaps Porzingis being extension-eligible in-season. The Hawks’ 2025–26 Cap sheet is relatively balanced: one near-max contract, two salaries over $30M, and two more above the NTMLE. There are no Unlikely Incentives on the books. This balance and relative Cap Sheet health can carry forward.
Projecting forward to 2026–27, Atlanta currently has $136M in guaranteed salary, sitting $64.7M below the Luxury Tax. This figure assumes ten standard contracts and includes Young’s $49M Player Option. However, it excludes a potential Daniels extension and Porzingis, who will be a UFA. The decisions around these three contracts (Young, Daniels, and Porzingis) will largely dictate the Hawks’ direction and roster-building strategy.
If the Front Office wants to retain Young, while extending Daniels, the team payroll stays relatively healthy. However, flexibility could change depending upon moves elsewhere, which includes what happens with Porzingis, and team could find itself much closer to the Tax and/or Aprons. That said, the organization is aided by having four key rotation pieces locked up on longer-term contracts, along with several players on rookie-scale contracts either in or projected to enter the rotation. These elements help offset potential financial strain. The next twelve months will be crucial. Questions about team direction directly affect the organization’s financial and roster-building trajectory.
Moving onto the “Complicating Factor”, since being drafted in 2018, Trae Young has been the face of the Hawks. For a period, it appeared he would be a lifelong Hawk; however, Young’s future now carries uncertainty. Young is extension-eligible and could sign in-season if he opts out of his 2026–27 Player Option. To date, no agreement has been reached. The new Front Office appears to have drawn a line regarding what it is willing to pay, or whether it is willing to commit long-term at all. Young’s status is intrinsically tied to Daniels’ extension and Atlanta’s broader roster strategy. Simply put, the organization must decide: is Young a central building block, or has the Hawks’ directional strategy shifted?
Finally, Atlanta must also account for the financial implications of a potential lottery-pick salary slot from a Pelicans-acquired pick (also tied to the Bucks). Overall, all of these interlocking financial dynamics will shape how the Hawks evaluate a Daniels extension. It is not just a question of player value, but also how the move ripples across the roster and influences the organization’s strategic direction.
Pros and Cons to Extending Daniels: Roster-Building and Cap Strategy
Pros
Cap Planning and Optionality – Adds immediate financial clarity to the 2026–27 books, giving the Front Office a better view of long-term roster construction. Additionally, if Daniels takes even a moderate offensive leap next season, his contractual value will likely rise, making an early extension a potential value play.
Roster Construction, Core, and Identity Alignment – Daniels fits both within the Hawks’ system and next to other key core building-blocks, both on-court and within the organizational timeline. Additionally, extending Daniels would reinforce the franchise’s move toward defense, length, and versatility. Further, it would secure the trio of Daniels, Johnson, and Zaccharie Risacher for years to come, providing the organization with a strong foundation.
Asset Value Preservation – Even if Atlanta ultimately views Daniels as more of a high-end role player than a potential star, locking him in early protects asset value. Cost certainty matters, specifically for a 6’8” guard who can defend 1–3, handle secondary creation, and play on-or-off the ball. And if he were to take a step forward with his shot or overall offensive game, then his value would increase.
Team Control and Risk Protection – Avoids the risk of Daniels reaching RFA, where market dynamics and external bidding could influence his outcome more than the Hawks would prefer. Additionally, it prevents the possibility of a creatively structured offer sheet from another team that could strain Atlanta’s Cap flexibility and force unfavorable contract terms. And due to Daniels’ archetype and skillset, the chances of this type of event occurring seem plausible.
Archetype Scarcity – Wing-sized defensive guards who can guard at the point of attack and anchor a scheme do not grow on trees. Winning teams are increasingly built around lineups with players such as this, and Daniels already possesses high-level traits that likely translate to winning basketball.
Cons
On-Court Certainty Risk – There is a risk of overpaying before fully establishing what Daniels is and whether he can improve offensively. In this Cap environment, overpaying limited role players can carry punishing consequences, as good as they might be in other areas. Additionally, Daniels is not playoff-tested, and non-shooters have been schemed out of playoff series.
Leverage and Market Dynamics – Even though Daniels could be the exact type of player that draws interest in an RFA market, waiting still likely preserves (and enhances) organizational leverage. RFA inherently favors the team, and the 2024–25 RFA market landscape could set a precedent for Front Offices to play hard-ball, which could help Atlanta secure a team-friendly deal. The Hawks would also be able to give Daniels 8% annual raises and a 5th year, which other organizations would not be able to match.
Timeline and Direction Questions – An extension implicitly defines Daniels as a long-term core piece, potentially complicating both Young’s and Porzingis’ respective futures and raising broader roster-direction questions. It would also start the clock for the Front Office’s decision-making process regarding roster plans and direction.
Future Payroll Compression – There is a degree of future payroll compression, whereby a significant amount of money would be tied up into potential role players, presuming such players do not take significant steps in their development.
Valuation Approach and Offer
When attempting to establish a baseline valuation for Daniels, there are several factors that come into play, including the Hawks’ financial situation heading into the extension, recent market precedent, and player comparisons. When reviewing recent precedents from both the rookie extension market and RFA, there are several players who make sense as comparisons for Daniels. These players (with their attendant salaries) are:
The above figures represent implied contract values expressed as cap percentages for the 2025–26 Salary Cap. Based on these numbers, Daniels’ potential valuation range would initially be too broad to be useful, so it makes sense to narrow the list to a more targeted set of precedents. In my opinion, the three most relevant are Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Suggs, and Immanuel Quickley. Of this group, the Suggs extension (5 years-$150.5M) may ultimately carry the most weight in negotiations. Like Daniels, Suggs profiles as a defense-first, playmaking combo-guard whose offensive ceiling remains tied to the development of his shot. Similar to Daniels, Suggs established his value defensively and had a season with stronger offensive output in the year leading up to his extension eligibility. That said, within this narrowed range from the comparison list, Daniels likely falls in the middle, placing his projected valuation at roughly $26–30M in AAV. A potential contract could look like:
This contract lands in the middle of the valuation range, with a Year-1 salary of $27M, which would be roughly 16% of the projected Cap. It would be a flat structure, and across the entirety of the deal, the corresponding Cap percentage would be roughly 13-15%. The Hawks, as currently constructed, would have approximately $37.7M in Tax space with 11 contracts on the books. This means that with a fully filled out roster, the team would still have wiggle-room. However, this financial situation lacks a potential Young contract (presuming he declines his PO), and does not include a deal for Porzingis, which will also carry a certain amount of weight if the Hawks want to pursue a long-term deal, further raising the Team Salary.
It is also important to note that the Hawks extended Jalen Johnson last offseason for 5-years $150M in a situation that shares a degree of similarity. While that deal came under a different version of the Hawks Front Office, and Johnson is on a different developmental trajectory (more of a potential All-Star path than Daniels), the Daniels camp will undoubtedly argue that their resume at the time of negotiation is stronger, as he finished his third season with a series of league recognitions: he finished 2nd in DPOY voting, won Most Improved Player, and made 1st-Team All-Defense. Even if Atlanta dismisses Johnson as a comp and explains the differences in situation, the Daniels camp can point to the Suggs extension, which happens to virtually match the Johnson deal (albeit in descending form versus Johnson’s flat structure) as direct precedent for this archetype. Put simply: the Daniels camp enters negotiations with organizational precedent plus a like-for-like market comparison, which strengthens its leverage.
Moving on, the Trae Young factor looms large over this negotiation. Extending Daniels could be interpreted as a long-term bet on the Hawks’ new defensive identity built around Daniels–Risacher–Johnson. At the same time, Daniels fits cleanly next to Young on the floor. As stated in the “On-Court Value” section, he provides point-of-attack defense, size, and connective playmaking which all fit next to an on-ball creator in Young. Thus, a potential Daniels extension does not necessarily signal a future without Young; however, it does force the organization to start its decision-making process and evaluation of the roster direction. Atlanta must decide if Daniels is being extended as part of a Young-led core, or as a pillar of a post-Young era.
From a structural standpoint, I believe that a 4-year deal makes the most sense for Atlanta. It would align Daniels’ contract timeline with Johnson’s (ending in 2029–30) and would expire two-years into a potential Risacher extension (which could begin in 2028-29). Though Risacher is still at the start of his career, many versions of the Hawks’ long-term planning must operate with his future extension timing in mind. If Daniels is part of Atlanta’s future, synchronizing his deal with Johnson maintains optionality, preserves roster control, and ensures financial alignment across the core. All-in-all, Daniels and Johnson are in the same age bracket, have played roughly the same number of games in the NBA, and are on similar upward career trajectory curves. In total, if Daniels were to agree to the deal above, the two players would combine to make roughly 26% of the Cap in 2029-2030, which projects to be a strong return on investment and very fair value.
Points of Leverage
From a Hawks’ perspective, the Front Office might resort to: using the prospect of RFA to control the process; explaining that it is still in an evaluation period and wants one more season’s worth of data before committing to large contracts; pointing to Daniels’ shooting struggles and lack of playoff experience to justify caution; separating Daniels from the Johnson precedent and Suggs comparison to cap his valuation; highlighting how the league is more disciplined in paying non-stars; and illustrating that, despite several major upcoming contractual decisions, the team still controls its timeline and can afford to wait if there is no middle ground in valuation ranges.
From Daniels’ perspective, his camp can: argue that players of his archetype are increasingly valuable and should be compensated accordingly; highlight his production and awards as justification for his demands, and be a reason as to why potential RFA market interest could materialize; emphasize that, at 22, Daniels has ample room to grow and is currently on an upward career trajectory; showcase Daniels schematic value to the team; point to his fit within a potential Young-led timeline or post-Young roster built around Johnson and Risacher; lean on market and organizational precedent to support his asking price; stress that, with a rising Cap, a deal at the higher end of the range will likely age well; and show that signing him would allow the Hawks to begin taking steps elsewhere upon other pathways to sort out its Cap Sheet moving forward.
Conclusion
Ultimately, I am of the belief that it is within the best interests of both the Hawks and Daniels to come to terms over an extension, so long as the number fits within Atlanta’s structure. If I were the Hawks, I would be disciplined in my approach because of the concerns about Daniels’ current offensive limitations and spacing abilities, as well as the direction of the organization being analyzed. The idea of waiting a season to gather more data and information about this current group is plausible. However if the team believes in Daniels, his future, his development, and his fit within the foundation, it should attempt to come to an agreement. That said, the Front Office has a series of decisions that it must make, and the Daniels decision is seemingly the first step in such a process. What the team chooses to do will shed light into its overall plans. Overall, this negotiation will be an interesting litmus test in this Cap environment for players in the mold of Daniels.